东北冷涡对海河流域初夏降水异常的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

何丽烨  马宁  郭军 《地球物理学报》2017,60(10):3745-3752

东北冷涡是东亚中高纬度地区的重要天气系统,其频繁活动可能导致显著的气候效应,不仅对东北局地,而且对海河流域地区初夏降水产生影响.本文利用海河流域34个地面气象台站逐日降水资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对东北冷涡与海河流域初夏降水的关系进行研究,结果表明:初夏东北冷涡活动与海河流域降水存在显著的相关关系,对其空间分布亦有重要影响.当东北冷涡活动偏多(少)时,海河流域北部地区(尤其是海河下游)初夏降水可能偏多(少),对应时间系数为正(负)时海河流域初夏降水EOF第二模态北多(少)南少(多)的空间分布.在东北冷涡活动偏多年,东北冷涡引导北方"干冷"空气南下推进至海河流域北部,伴随该地区源自西风带水汽输送和水汽辐合的增强,形成了"上干下湿"的不稳定层结,在上升运动的触发下,导致海河流域北部初夏降水偏多;而东北冷涡活动偏少年情况正好相反.东北冷涡活动为海河流域尤其是海河下游地区初夏降水预测提供了具有参考意义的结果,其活动指数与海河下游初夏降水距平的符号一致率在近30年高达83%.  相似文献   

Landscape controls on long‐term runoff in subhumid heterogeneous Boreal Plains catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Kevin J. Devito  Kelly J. Hokanson  Paul Adrian Moore  Nicholas Kettridge  Axel E. Anderson  Laura Chasmer  Chris Hopkinson  Maxwell C. Lukenbach  Carl A. Mendoza  Julienne Morissette  Daniel L. Peters  Richard Michael Petrone  Uldis Silins  Brian Smerdon  James Michael Waddington 《水文研究》2017,31(15):2737-2751

We compared median runoff (R) and precipitation (P) relationships over 25 years from 20 mesoscale (50 to 5,000 km²) catchments on the Boreal Plains, Alberta, Canada, to understand controls on water sink and source dynamics in water‐limited, low‐relief northern environments. Long‐term catchment R and runoff efficiency (RP^?1) were low and varied spatially by over an order of magnitude (3 to 119 mm/year, 1 to 27%). Intercatchment differences were not associated with small variations in climate. The partitioning of P into evapotranspiration (ET) and R instead reflected the interplay between underlying glacial deposit texture, overlying soil‐vegetation land cover, and regional slope. Correlation and principal component analyses results show that peatland‐swamp wetlands were the major source areas of water. The lowest estimates of median annual catchment ET (321 to 395 mm) and greatest R (60 to 119 mm, 13 to 27% of P) were observed in low‐relief, peatland‐swamp dominated catchments, within both fine‐textured clay‐plain and coarse‐textured glacial deposits. In contrast, open‐water wetlands and deciduous‐mixedwood forest land covers acted as water sinks, and less catchment R was observed with increases in proportional coverage of these land covers. In catchments dominated by hummocky moraines, long‐term runoff was restricted to 10 mm/year, or 2% of P. This reflects the poor surface‐drainage networks and slightly greater regional slope of the fine‐textured glacial deposit, coupled with the large soil‐water and depression storage and higher actual ET of associated shallow open‐water marsh wetland and deciduous‐forest land covers. This intercatchment study enhances current conceptual frameworks for predicting water yield in the Boreal Plains based on the sink and source functions of glacial landforms and soil‐vegetation land covers. It offers the capability within this hydro‐geoclimatic region to design reclaimed catchments with desired hydrological functionality and associated tolerances to climate or land‐use changes and inform land management decisions based on effective catchment‐scale conceptual understanding.  相似文献   

Crop evapotranspiration in the Nile Delta under different irrigation methods     

Michiaki Sugita  Akihiro Matsuno  Rushdi M. M. El-Kilani  Ahmed Abdel-Fattah  M. A. Mahmoud 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(10):1618-1635

Eddy correlation measurements within the Nile Delta allowed the determination of evapotranspiration (E) for seven crops (rice, maize, cotton, sugar beet, berseem, wheat and fava beans) using basin irrigation (BI), furrow irrigation (FI), BI with increased intervals (BI_i), FI with increased intervals (FI_i), strip irrigation (SI) and drip irrigation (DI). Total E values over the cropping season for rice (BI, BI_i) were the highest (>600 mm), while those for sugar beet (DI), maize (SI and DI) and berseem (BI_i) were the lowest (<250 mm). The differences were due to a combination of atmospheric demand, soil moisture, the presence of surface standing water, root depth, and the length and timing of the cropping season. The DI and SI methods had the advantage for water saving, while the FI_i and BI_i methods were effective for crops with shallow root lengths. Estimated annual E was 566–828 mm/year (water-saving irrigation) and 875–1225 mm/year (conventional irrigation).  相似文献   

Isotopic analysis to quantify the role of the Indian monsoon on water resources of selected river basins in the Himalayas     

Ghulam Jeelani  Rouf Ahmad Shah  Rajendrakumar D. Deshpande  Ashok P. Dimri  Suraj Mal  Anupam Sharma 《水文研究》2021,35(11):e14406

Western disturbances (WDs) and Indian summer monsoon (ISM) led precipitation play a central role in the Himalayan water budget. Estimating their contributions to water resource is although a challenging but essential for hydrologic understanding and effective water resource management. In this study, we used stable water isotope data of precipitation and surface waters to estimate the contribution of ISM and WDs to the water resources in three mountainous river basins - Indus, Bhagirathi and Teesta river basins of western, central and Eastern Himalayas. The study reveals distinct seasonality in isotope characteristics of precipitation and surface waters in each river basin is due to changes in moisture source, hydrometeorology and relief. Despite steady spatial variance in the slope and intercept of regression lines from the Teesta to Indus and the Bhagirathi river basins, the slope and intercept are close to the global meteoric water line and reported local meteoric water line of other regions in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau. The two-component end-member mixing method using d-excess as tracer were used to estimate the contribution from ISM and WD led precipitation to surface water in aforementioned river basins. The results suggest that the influence of the ISM on the water resources is high (>72% to annual river flow) in Teesta river basin (eastern Himalayas), while as the WDs led precipitation is dominantly contributing (>70% average annual river flow) to the surface waters in the Indus river basin (western Himalayas). The contribution of ISM and WD led precipitation in Bhagirathi river basin is 60% and 40%, respectively. The findings demonstrate that the unusual changes in the ISM and WD moisture dynamics have the potential to affect the economy and food security of the region, which is dependent on the availability of water resources. The obtained results are of assistance to policy makers/mangers to make use of the information for better understanding hydrologic response amid unusual behaviour of the dual monsoon system over the region.  相似文献   

North Atlantic climate impact on early late‐glacial climate oscillations in the south‐eastern Alps inferred from a multi‐proxy lake sediment record     

Roland Schmidt  Kaarina Weckström  Stefan Lauterbach  Richard Tessadri  Kerstin Huber 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(1):40-50

High‐resolution multi‐proxy analyses of a sediment core section from Lake Jeserzersee (Saissersee) in the piedmont lobe of the Würmian Drau glacier (Carinthia, Austria) reveal pronounced climatic oscillations during the early late glacial (ca. 18.5–16.0k cal a BP). Diatom‐inferred epilimnetic summer water temperatures show a close correspondence with temperature reconstructions from the adjacent Lake Längsee record and, on a hemispheric scale, with fluctuations of ice‐rafted debris in the North Atlantic. This suggests that North Atlantic climate triggered summer climate variability in the Alps during the early late glacial. The expansion of pine (mainly dwarf pine) between ca. 18.5 and 18.1k cal a BP indicates warming during the so‐called ‘Längsee oscillation’. The subsequent stepwise climate deterioration between ca. 18.1 and 17.6k cal a BP culminated in a tripartite cold period between ca. 17.6 and 16.9k cal a BP with diatom‐inferred summer water temperatures 8.5–10 °C below modern values and a shift from wet to dry conditions. This period probably coincides with a major Alpine glacier advance termed the Gschnitz stadial. A warmer interval between ca. 16.9 and 16.4k cal a BP separates this cold phase from a second, shorter and less pronounced cold phase between ca. 16.4 and 16.0k cal a BP, which is thought to correlate with the Clavadel/Senders glacier advance in the Alps. The following temperature increase, coupled with wet (probably snow‐rich) conditions, caused the expansion of birch during the transition period to the late glacial interstadial. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于年际增量法的卷积神经网络模型对中国夏季降水的预测研究          下载免费PDF全文

蒋鹏  胡轶佳  钟中  孙源  吕硕 《气象科学》2023,43(5):569-577

将前冬的500 hPa位势高度、向外长波辐射和海表温度的年际增量作为预测因子，建立基于卷积神经网络（Convolutional Neural Network，CNN）的非线性预测模型，对中国160个测站夏季降水展开预测研究，并与基于线性奇异值分解（Singular Value Decomposition，SVD）的预测模型进行效果对比。结果表明：CNN在1981—2020年的交叉检验中所回报的降水平均PS评分和距平相关系数（ACC）分别为74.33和0.12，比SVD高2.15和0.06，说明CNN比SVD在整体上对夏季降水具有更好的预测能力。其中，CNN对SVD预测较好年份的预测效果提升较为明显，对SVD预测较差的年份则改进不大。CNN对中国降水预测存在一定的系统性偏差，订正后CNN对拉尼娜年的降水预测改进较大。结果表明，基于年际增量法的CNN预测模型展示出较好的潜在应用价值。  相似文献   

初夏至盛夏东亚副热带西风急流变化与江淮出梅的关系          下载免费PDF全文

董丽娜  郭品文  张福颖   《大气科学学报》2010,33(1):74-81

利用1961—2005年逐候资料对东亚副热带西风急流初夏至盛夏变化与江淮出梅的关系进行了分析。结果表明,多年平均7月初夏至盛夏急流中心由西太平洋地区西跳至青藏高原的同时我国东部地区急流北跳至37.5°N以北,比梅雨结束早1候;急流北跳使得我国东部高空强辐散中心北移至华北地区,江淮地区上空辐散显著减弱,上升运动减弱,从而使得江淮梅雨结束,雨带北移;而急流中心的西跳仅使得我国东部地区高空辐散中心减弱,降水减弱,有利于雨带北移。我国东部急流北跳与江淮地区梅雨结束时间显著正相关,在北跳偏早(晚)年份梅雨结束早(晚),长江中下游地区降水偏少(多),而急流中心西跳早晚对我国华北北部地区和淮河附近地区降水有较大影响。可见,我国东部急流北跳与梅雨结束关系密切,可作为梅雨结束的先期信号。  相似文献   

南海夏季风爆发与西北太平洋热带气旋活动   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄菲  李元妮 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2010,40(8)

利用1965—2007年美国台风预警中心(JTWC)的热带气旋(TC)及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,初步研究南海夏季风爆发与西北太平洋(包括南海)热带气旋活动之间的关系。结果表明,南海夏季风的爆发伴随着西北太平洋(尤其南海区域)TC生成个数和活动频数比爆发前有显著增加,而超过1/2的年份南海夏季风爆发前2候和爆发候西北太平洋(150°E以西)有TC活动,表明TC活动可能是南海夏季风爆发的触发机制之一。在大多数(77%)南海夏季风爆发偏早年,爆发前2候和爆发候西北太平洋TC活动偏多,且TC生成位置偏西;而大多数(77%)爆发偏晚年份,爆发前2候和爆发候没有TC活动。季风的偏早爆发受季节内振荡、西北太平洋TC活动、中纬度冷空气活动等复杂因素影响,而季风的偏晚爆发则主要受季节内振荡影响。  相似文献   

Sub-seasonal Prediction of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2     

Weiwei WANG  Song YANG  Tuantuan ZHANG  Qingquan LI  Wei WEI 《大气科学进展》2022,39(11):1969-1981

This study depicts the sub-seasonal prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset (SCSSMO) and investigates the associated oceanic and atmospheric processes, utilizing the hindcasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Typically, the SCSSMO is accompanied by an eastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), development of the cross-equatorial flow, and an increase in the east-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. These features are favorable for the onset of westerlies and strengthening of convection and precipitation over the South China Sea (SCS). A more vigorous SCSSMO process shows a higher predictability, and vice versa. The NCEP CFSv2 can successfully predict the onset date and evolution of the monsoon about 4 pentads (20 days) in advance (within 1–2 pentads) for more forceful (less vigorous) SCSSMO processes. On the other hand, the climatological SCSSMO that occurs around the 27th pentad can be accurately predicted in one pentad, and the predicted SCSSMO occurs 1–2 pentads earlier than the observed with a weaker intensity at longer leadtimes. Warm SST biases appear over the western equatorial Pacific preceding the SCSSMO. These biases induce a weaker-than-observed WNPSH as a Gill-type response, leading to weakened low-level easterlies over the SCS and hence an earlier and less vigorous SCSSMO. In addition, after the SCSSMO, remarkable warm biases over the eastern Indian Ocean and the SCS and cold biases over the WNP induce weaker-than-observed westerlies over the SCS, thus also contributing to the less vigorous SCSSMO.  相似文献   

The Impact of Tibetan Plateau Snow Cover on the Summer Temperature in Central Asia     

Xuke LIU  Xiaojing JIA  Min WANG  Qifeng QIAN 《大气科学进展》2022,39(7):1103-1114

The current work examines the impact of the snow cover extent (SCE) of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the interannual variation in the summer (June?July?August) surface air temperature (SAT) over Central Asia (CA) (SAT_CA) during the 1979?2019 period. The leading mode of the summer SAT_CA features a same-sign temperature anomalies in CA and explains 62% of the total variance in SAT_CA. The atmospheric circulation associated with a warming SAT_CA is characterized by a pronounced high-pressure system dominating CA. The high-pressure system is accompanied by warm advection as well as descending motion over CA, favoring the warming of the SAT_CA. Analysis shows that the interannual variation in the summer SAT_CA is significantly positively correlated with the April SCE over the central-eastern TP. In April, higher than normal SCE over the central-eastern TP has a pronounced cooling effect on the column of the atmosphere above the TP and can persist until the following early summer. Negative and positive height anomalies appear above and to the west of the TP. In the following months, the perturbation forcing generated by the TP SCE anomalies lies near the western center of the Asian subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), which promotes atmospheric waves in the zonal direction guided by the Asian SWJ. Associated with this atmospheric wave, in the following summer, a significant high-pressure system dominates CA, which is a favorable condition for a warm summer SAT_CA.  相似文献